Alright, you guys have waited long enough, it’s time for some hard-core lottery number analysis. However, if you haven’t already seen it, first check out Mikey Zhong’s fantastic overview post from earlier this week---it’s got a ton of useful data and tidbits.
Keep in mind that everything we say assumes that no suites are held out by Housing. Of course, that’s not going to happen---they hold out suites every single year without warning. However, there’s no way to know which ones they’re going to choose, so you’ll have to prepare a backup if you’re anywhere near our projected cutoffs.
30-Point Groups
Six-person groups: There are 41 such groups this year, just 3 fewer than last time, so things should shake out just about the same. We’ll start with the Hogan penthouse suite, which was snatched early last year but was around for much longer the year before that. We suspect that it will be gone before 30/500, but that’s anyone’s guess.
Next, there are the all-single suites along the -02 line of the EC Highrise. They could theoretically be gone as soon as 30/476, but there will almost certainly be a group or two that prefers a townhouse to a highrise suite, suggesting a cutoff somewhere between 30/668 and 30/893. As soon as those have been finished off, it will be a steady stream of all-single townhouses.
To be guaranteed a six-person suite without a double, you’ll need to be one of the first 29 30 six-person groups to pick---that’s anyone with a lottery number better than 1894 or equal to 1927. The groups at 30/1927 and 30/1973 can hope that someone decides to drop but anyone after that is going to be out of luck.
Those who miss out on an all-single suite will be forced to choose between dropping to Online Selection or Regroup and one of the 6 townhouses with a double. Last year, none of the groups who had that choice decided to drop, but it seems unlikely that the same will occur this year.
Therefore, a cutoff of 30/2624 seems like a reasonable bet, plus or minus a group or two. The remaining groups could consider picking into Ruggles or Claremont, but will probably elect to drop down instead.
Five-person groups: Last year, there was a slight dip in the popularity of these groups, but they’re back to their 2011 levels, with 49 groups of five seniors. With 17 all-single suites between the EC Highrise and Hogan available, the final one could be taken by 30/1176. However, for the last couple of years, the EC suites have outpaced the Hogan five-person suites in popularity.
This means that there are likely to be a handful of groups (approximately five) whose only opportunity to live in EC will be to deal with a double and select an Exclusion suite. If some choose this option, the all-single cutoff could go a bit past the absolute minimum, so the groups at 30/1200 and even 30/1257 have reason to hope.
Either way, there will be about 30 groups who have to choose between Regroup/Online and an EC Exclusion suite. In each of the last two years, about 80% of the groups faced with this dilemma have opted for the Exclusion suite. If that holds, about 26 of the 56 Exclusion Suites will be gone before Senior Regroup even begins. That should cover the entirety of the 16th and 18th floors along with most of the 14th floor.
