Opinion

Which Republican will 'live free or die'?

Today, we’ve rounded up six professors from the Columbia and Barnard political science departments to make their picks for who they think will win in the New Hampshire primary tomorrow. The Spectator staff will also present its “house pick.” You can state your own in the comments section at the end. We’ll be running this feature throughout the primary season, so you can keep track of just how good your profs are at gauging the electoral winds.


Robert Jervis: Mitt Romney

I think Romney is likely to win in NH partly because that state is more moderate on social issues and because he is well-known from being governor next door.






Robert Lieberman: Mitt Romney

Romney will almost certainly win New Hamphshire, mostly because of the familiarity that comes from exposure as governor of Massachusetts.







Scott Minkoff: Mitt Romney

I would be pretty stunned if Romney did not take the New Hampshire primary—it is certainly his to lose.  I think the more interesting question is who comes in second and third in New Hampshire.  My guess: Ron “Live Free or Die” Paul comes in second and Huntsman has a surprisingly good showing and places third.  I am getting the sense from the polls that Huntsman is becoming the alternative for dissatisfied Romney voters.  Moreover, as Gingrich’s support has faded over the last few weeks, Huntsman’s been the one on the ground talking to voters.


Justin Phillips: Mitt Romney

I expect New Hampshire to be a fairly comfortable win for Mitt Romney.  He has the home field advantage here (given the state's proximity to Massachusetts) and has invested a great deal of political resources and time in securing a New Hampshire win.




Kenneth Prewitt: Mitt Romney

Clearly I underestimated the Santorum surge. That said, my prediction for Mitt Romney stands---but I drop my [previous] reference to Palin's write-in. If she didn't make the move in Iowa, she cannot elsewhere. That is, she is out of the game.




Robert Shapiro: Mitt Romney

I think Romney will win the New Hampshire primary. The important question is to what extent Gingrich, Santorum, or Perry will do well enough to give one or more of them will gain enough traction to prevent Romney from then winning decisively in South Carolina. Paul will get his continued base of support, so it's whether the other candidates will split the votes enough to slow Romneys gains or even give them staying power to stay in for the long haul. With the proportional delegate allocations before April 1, this could drag out the outcome, possibly to the convention, though odd are against this given Romney's support among party leaders and assuming he does well in NH, SC, and FL.


Spectator House Pick: Mitt Romney

In a unanimous decision, Spectator pitched 9 votes in favor of Mitt Romney.

Who do you expect to win? Give us your predictions in the comments.

Comments

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Anonymous posted on

JON HUNTSMAN I BELIEVE!!!

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down with mitt posted on

is that derek? in any case im with you. Republicans and Democrats alike, JOIN THE HUNT.

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ronpaul2012 posted on

Huntsman created a video that made him look good and blamed it on Ron Paul's followers. He is such a phony.

Vote Ron Paul, he's the only honest one in the bunch!

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Anon posted on

Ron Paul has written or allowed to be published some disturbingly racist and bigoted things. I'm for Huntsman in the primary, though I'll be supporting President Obama in the general. But here's how I think it will actually turn out:

1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Huntsman
4. Santorum

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Anon posted on

Also, if you believe that Huntsman made that "Manchurian candidate" video himself, your tin foil hat is probably on a bit too tight. Can you provide even one shred of evidence for that? (The answer is no, you cannot, because there is none).

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wow posted on

you're so dumb to believe the media. he did not write them. in fact, he was the only doctor in his town to help an interracial couple deliver their baby because everyone else was racist and he was not.

huntsman himself put the video to endorse himself online while blaming it on paul so that he would look racist. he has had a surge in the polls since then. huntsman is not playing fair and he's a liar.

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Anon posted on

YOU are dumb to believe that he did not write them when he has repeatedly defended them over the years:

"Paul’s failure to deny authorship was not an oversight. He was repeatedly confronted about the newsletters during his 1996 campaign and consistently defended them as his own. A few examples:

– In 1996, Ron Paul’s campaign defended his statements about the rationality of fearing black men. (“[W]e are constantly told that it is evil to be afraid of black men, it is hardly irrational.”) The Houston Chronicle reports, “A campaign spokesman for Paul said statements about the fear of black males mirror pronouncements by black leaders such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson.” [Houston Chronicle, 5/23/96]
– Paul said that his comments on blacks contained in the newsletters should be viewed in the context of “current events and statistical reports of the time.” [Houston Chronicle, 5/23/96]
– Paul defended statements from an August 12, 1992 newsletter calling the late Rep. Barbara Jordan (D-TX) a “moron” and a “fraud.” Paul also said Jordon was “her race and sex protect her from criticism.” In response, Paul said “such opinions represented our clear philosophical difference.” [Roll Call, 7/29/96]
– “Also in 1992, Paul wrote, ‘Opinion polls consistently show that only about 5 percent of blacks have sensible political opinions.’ Sullivan said Paul does not consider people who disagree with him to be sensible. And most blacks, [Paul spokesman Michael] Sullivan said, do not share Paul’s views.” [Austin American Statesman, 5/23/96]"

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/12/27/395391/fact-check-ron-paul-...

If he didn't write that stuff, he spent plenty of time defefnding it. He is a racist.

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bloach posted on

Robert Shapiro, you need to tell them you need a new default pic, bro. Robert Jervis, button up your lacoste. That brand is to expensive to have your collar all busted.

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